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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.