Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.