A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
